03-01-2011, 06:40 PM
Here's the math as I see it.
Right now, we have a 1 in 4 chance of lynching a mafia member. Not too good, but considering the ratio never exceeds 3 in 7 we have to make decisions while we can.
If we lynch someone who is not a mafia member we increase our odds of catching a real on next turn to 3 in 11, but decrease our odds of survival.
If we lynch someone who is a mafia member we decrease our odds of catching a real mafioso to 2 in 11, but increase our odds of winning this game.
I believe we need to make a decision and stand by it. If we're wrong, we still better our chances for next time. At the very least we can start narrowing down our choices. My votes stands for Waff. I hope we can reach some kind of consensus here.
Right now, we have a 1 in 4 chance of lynching a mafia member. Not too good, but considering the ratio never exceeds 3 in 7 we have to make decisions while we can.
If we lynch someone who is not a mafia member we increase our odds of catching a real on next turn to 3 in 11, but decrease our odds of survival.
If we lynch someone who is a mafia member we decrease our odds of catching a real mafioso to 2 in 11, but increase our odds of winning this game.
I believe we need to make a decision and stand by it. If we're wrong, we still better our chances for next time. At the very least we can start narrowing down our choices. My votes stands for Waff. I hope we can reach some kind of consensus here.