Mafia III - Day One, IT BEGINS

[Ashe]

The odds of successfully lynching a mafia in one go are about the same odds that the sheriff has of finding the mafia, and way better than the doc's chances of saving the victim. I really hate no lynch days, even the first one. It always feels like we're not making any forward progress when the noose lies empty. I can appreciate not wanting to lynch an innocent townie, but eventually we're going to need to start making choices here.

Good point. I think the problem, though, would be to lynch an innocent person while the mafia kills another, causing us to lose two people to their zero instead of one person to their zero, all for a shot in the dark on no information. Wouldn't that increase our "rate of decay" so to speak? Though I guess at the same time by burning off members of our own team, we're also increasing our odds by removing clutter (although said clutter also reduces our chances of being selected by mafia). Ton of variables to keep in mind here.