Mafia III - Day One, IT BEGINS

[Kaden]

I'm not mafia.

When it comes to lynching, the Mafia can see it as either a blessing or a curse. If we guess wrong, they get two townies for the price of one. If we guess right, miraculously, then they're down one. If I were Mafia, personally, I would vote for no lynch. I'd rather have a guaranteed 1 kill than a possible two any day. One in the hand and all that.

Killing an innocent on accident isn't even the worst-case. We probably have just as good a chance at killing off a role that would be beneficial to us. That's, like, shooting ourselves in both feet... and a hand... in one shot.

Meer went over this in the ChatBox once, but if you take a fairly simple set-up of: 12 people, 3 mafia, 1 sheriff, 1 doctor, and 1 other townie role, then look at the chances you have of hanging someone on day 1. 50% chance you'll get a special role. Even odds it's someone who would have been able to help you.

Now, obviously, that doesn't apply universally. We could be dealing with numbers that are much different. Fact of the matter is that the risk is simply not worth it. (I understand you're saying the same thing, I just wanted to enforce the potential risk to anyone reading this.)