04-28-2011, 09:45 PM
Well, that's assuming that I don't pick right tonight, but yeah. The best case scenario for us is that we lynch right today. The next scenario is that I protect correctly tonight and we have tomorrow to get it right. The worst scenario is that we both pick wrong today and the mafia gets a kill tonight.
Of course, we could not lynch today and hope the better odds tomorrow (1:3) work in our favor. Right now we have a 1:4 chance of guessing right, using no information. If we assume that Kaden is the Sheriff, and right about Jarka, it's a 1:2 chance of guessing right. If we then go on to assume that I'm telling the truth, then Meer has to be the last mafia member.
It's a whole lot of assumptions though.
Of course, we could not lynch today and hope the better odds tomorrow (1:3) work in our favor. Right now we have a 1:4 chance of guessing right, using no information. If we assume that Kaden is the Sheriff, and right about Jarka, it's a 1:2 chance of guessing right. If we then go on to assume that I'm telling the truth, then Meer has to be the last mafia member.
It's a whole lot of assumptions though.
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