LoM2 - Day Two

[Kaden]

Kaden I'm not so sure about, because he is excellent at this stuff. Even when mafia, he always makes very valid points. Of course, this is going to keep the lynch vote at a stalemate, which will objectively lose us the game. So do we take a risk or not?

The other thing to consider is that I, ostensibly, have a greater luxury of time. It's only 7 PM here. I absolutely haven't said I'm not going to vote, though. I'm not even trying to stalemate or stall. I'm simply being critical of what's been said. I feel like not enough of that has been done in this phase.

As with all mafia games, there are just a ton of "what ifs" floating around and the game is really more about risk management than anything else.

At the most basic level, we, as a town, have one choice to make: lynch or don't lynch. If we don't lynch, we risk the mafia getting another kill. If we do lynch, we risk the mafia getting a two-for-one. Those are the worst-case scenarios, right now. The two-for-one is clearly the worst possible outcome of any choices made, there's not really any question about that. The two-for-one, however, seems less likely. What is very likely is that mafia will kill someone during the Night Phase. There's a good chance there's a "doctor" role out there, but we definitely can't count on it preventing the mafia from advancing their game.

So we assume someone dies during that Night. That will put us at 5v3. If we lynch today and get a mafia, we'll be at 5v2, which is basically the exact same spot we're in now. No real change has been made to the game-state. There's definitely nothing wrong with that and, ultimately, we do need to kill all the mafia members. If we lynch and get a townsperson, though, they'll be at 4v3 and only need a single kill after that in order to win that game. That... is a big risk. A risk that ends up hinging on whether or not people want to believe the only person who has leveled a definitive accusation.

Sadly, any speculation can easily go right out the window once we start talking about what champion abilities may be floating around out there. >.<