Ye Olde Mafia - Day Two

[Ashe]

OK server connection issue Fixed.

And Ashe, I just don't like being the first to keep on posting over and over and my hunches and logic comes from others posting.

My thoughts on the Doe, while vengance is on the top of my mind, is still a bit confusing. We can actually gather SOME information on day 1 and quite a bit of it all pertains to the Doe.

Lets look at some of them I can remember...

He may be doing his same tactics as previous game and trying to get lynched to save 'the town'.



This COULD hint towards an actual role. Him trolling the vigilante roll in front of everyones face. It could be an assanine Sherrif.




He was waiting for the argument of 'a mafia would say that', thus defusing the argument before it started, which actually might be something an intelligent mafain would do. Think Meer or Kaden quality Mafia and confusion?



Here he changes the subject a bit. He points out that the game needs him to be active. This seems like he's using a ploy to gain favor of the town simply to remain active and may or may not be something a mafian would do. At the same time maybe he's something important to the town. Then again maybe he's trying to buy the town some time.



Could be something to divert from a special role.




This is where it gets interesting some more. He hints towards his activity. Asks for doctor protection. Points blame towards me of being mafia or the psycho batman.(Cuz me as a vigilante we'd know I''d have fucked the town up... or killed the mafia by day 4). He then mentions him dying is bad for the town. A mafia would say that. A troll would say that. Would a special role say that? Maybe if he's a troll. And keep in mind asking for the doc to protect him might make mafia target someone else allowing him to protect someone else if he is the doc.

I know its long, but yeah....

Ok, I'm willing to play ball here. Most of this could pass as sound reasoning, but I want to point out that Doe tends to act exactly like this in every damn game he plays. I've yet to see a game where he basically isn't begging people to lynch him from day one.

The key difference this time is that he then wanted to deter those votes when he saw that he was going to actually get lynched. This could mean that he wants to actually participate beyond Day One for once, or it could mean that he's a mafia and that would not help him win, or it could even mean that he's trying to act completely... Doe while being a role that is helpful.

How do we know that there are special mafia roles? I thought this was just normal mafia, and those roles don't tend to be present in standard games.

The shitty thing about this is, the death doesn't really give us much to go off on. Doe's all-caps rage may be him trolling us or reveal a deeper meaning to his madness.

We really don't. I mean, it could be entirely plain and completely vanilla for them. But even the previous "old school" mafia games that we've run have had the mafia have access to certain abilities that the town is not privvy to knowledge of. I was mafia in a previous game that had me as that "trap layer" person. I think it was called an Agent or something, though I might just be swapping in Star Wars here. More or less, it said that I could plant evidence on a player and if they were investigated, it would signal them as a mafia. In that game (and to my knowledge, all of the "classic" ones) we had a Godfather who was immune to investigation (he came up as a townie) and the third player in that game, as best as I can remember, was a vanilla goon. There may even be a third actual mafia role that tends to get used, but I can't say for sure.

I'm going to fill in what Mal probably meant to say:

Let's examine what we know about John Doe. It's possible that none of what he posted is reliable, but whatevs.

We can assume that he is not the doctor, because he asked for doctor protection. That eliminates a possibility, so as there are three mafia people, there is a ~33% chance that he's a mafia player, an ~11% chance that he's the vigilante, an ~11% chance that he's a sheriff, and a ~45% chance that he's a townsperson.

He said he is a person the town cannot afford to lose, so let's assume that he's not a townsperson. He's either the vigilante, the sheriff, or a mafia player. Honestly, we could afford to lose either non-mafia role if it meant taking out a mafia person. If he IS a townsperson, we'd at least have more to go on.

Considering that we literally have nothing else to go on...lynch John Doe.

Here's where I want to disagree with you. Your assumptions basically say that "he asked for doctor protection, so its clear that he's anything but". Knowing Doe, I would actually say that he asked for Doctor protection because he could be the Doctor himself. Note that he didn't want to get lynched at all (as Doctors can't avoid that) and dropped that he was useful (maybe false claim, maybe not), but asked for Doctor protection that night.

We then see the mafia kill someone else (Waff of all people). I'm taking a guess that the reason is because they assumed one of a few possibilities: A - the Doctor actually was protecting Doe (who may or may not actually be the Doctor himself), B - Attack a general target without calling attention to themselves and giving credibility to someone based on "why would the mafia have hit this guy? Let's review his posts", C - the assumption is that Doe tends to get himself killed without them needing to waste a shot so let the town blow a day on him while they hit another target and leave us arguing about this, or D - he's mafia. All of these sound like fairly equal possibilities in my eyes.

Regarding other people... I am honestly surprised that Mal wasn't killed last night, given his past few games. While I don't buy that his reasoning skills are much more than a series of lucky guesses with massive confirmation bias (at this moment, its only been a few games and I do leave the possibility that this is something he's genuinely good at tactically), they have still more or less been accurate guesses, random luck or not. He's had a fairly strong presence in the two games that I ran and is a very loud poster. I have absolutely no stance (yet) and am not trying to draw votes towards him, to be clear, but I am noting that there is the possibility that he survived because of being mafia himself. I had him pegged last night as the top priority target if they were just eliminating general targets. I'm going to give his posts a fair look for now since he could be seeing good info or he could just be overcritical and over analyzing it.

Final note on Doe is that I doubt he's a Vigilante, to be honest. Knowing how Doe is, I would assume that he would have just killed Mal last night just for a laugh. Or even just SOMEONE. Rose said it doesn't have limited charges, and I don't really peg Doe as the type that would conserve his shots without them. So I'm guessing the Vigilante is someone who plays cautiously and would bide their time. I'll even say that Mal could pass that criteria. Completely serious here. I also don't think Doe's the Sheriff. He asked for Doctor protection on Night One, sure, but as loud as he posted, it was pretty much a given. If he was actually the Sheriff, I honestly think he would have straight up said it when he asked for Doctor protection and then dropped info on whoever he investigated.

I have people that I suspect, but what hurts (though is refreshing) about standard games is that having no abilities means you can't do anything but infer your information based on what has been posted.

Regarding Kaden, he's always a top suspicion for me just because of who he is. I say suspicion though in the sense of "guy I can never immediately rule out, but could easily be a valuable ally as well". Every game we play, to include in character, he's a strong asset to the winning team. He was also mafia last game, so while they are completely unrelated, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for this one and see where his posts might lead. That guy's the type you do not want to be a Godfather, though, as getting a lynch on him is damn near impossible, especially if he comes up as an ordinary townie on an investigation. Still, not much to go on from the first day of posts.