MTG Duel of the Planeswalkers 2013

[Jonathan Meer]

Oh, wait, suddenly your play-lots-of-crappy-games clusterfuck has finally broken through to me. See, the other day I was overdrawing a metric ton of land cards. But tonight, I was drawing 2-3 lands in the first 20 cards. (for fucking real) But see, between the games where I drew too many and the new games where I drew too few, the average comes out to about 7-8 lands in the first 20 cards, which is perfectly normal. What an ideal system this is, all of my criticisms are now moot. Thanks for teaching me the joys of averages, meer.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hy...etric.aspx

Assuming a 60 card deck, where 20 cards are land (low-balling it), only 3% of games will have you drawing 3 lands or fewer in the first 20 cards.

Assuming the same 60 card deck, where 20 cards are again land, only 1.3% of games will have you drawing 11 lands or more in the first 20 cards.

Following up, the chance of these occurring twice in a row is the probability-factor 4.3% (0.043) squared, or 0.18% (0.0018).

Really, this whole argument is about you bitching about losing to the CPU on an unlucky draw. When you run the statistics, your concerns are easily mitigated by playing 5+ games as a set.