Mafia III - Day One, IT BEGINS

[Super Buu]

6/10 No Lynch (Jarka, Jonathan Meer, John Doe, Ashe, Rafael, Metal Teemer, Dr. Cringlesworth)
1/10 John Doe (Waffuru)

[Ashe]

The odds of successfully lynching a mafia in one go are about the same odds that the sheriff has of finding the mafia, and way better than the doc's chances of saving the victim. I really hate no lynch days, even the first one. It always feels like we're not making any forward progress when the noose lies empty. I can appreciate not wanting to lynch an innocent townie, but eventually we're going to need to start making choices here.

Good point. I think the problem, though, would be to lynch an innocent person while the mafia kills another, causing us to lose two people to their zero instead of one person to their zero, all for a shot in the dark on no information. Wouldn't that increase our "rate of decay" so to speak? Though I guess at the same time by burning off members of our own team, we're also increasing our odds by removing clutter (although said clutter also reduces our chances of being selected by mafia). Ton of variables to keep in mind here.

[John Doe]

This should make it pretty easy too, anyone who won't vote for John Doe is probably mafia anyways.

I see what you did there! If I don't vote for myself, then I'm mafia. Clever girl.

Here's something I thought of the last two games but didn't say anything because it would have hurt me (when I was mafia), but how about we pick somebody to investigate today? It's quite possible that we Sheriff or some sort of investigative role in the townies, so let's use it. I'll explain my logic after we pick somebody.

Obviously, if you're sheriff, don't say you're sheriff yet.

[Blue]

The thing about Mafia is that it's a tough game if you play it in a classroom or similar setting. Here, we can't see body language, tells for lies and bluffs, or hear the voices of people when they proclaim innocence, etc. So basically, we start off with no information and gather very little in comparison to how the game would be played if we were all in the same room. The best we can hope for is for someone to show a pattern that would mark them as suspicious, for someone to do something out of the ordinary for their personality, or for the Sheriff to guess right often enough that we get an advantage. And hopefully the Sheriff isn't insane.

[Super Buu]

If there's no sheriff, you guys are fucked.

[Rem-13]

Lynch Metal Teemer

[Rem-13]

I see what you did there! If I don't vote for myself, then I'm mafia. Clever girl.

Here's something I thought of the last two games but didn't say anything because it would have hurt me (when I was mafia), but how about we pick somebody to investigate today? It's quite possible that we Sheriff or some sort of investigative role in the townies, so let's use it. I'll explain my logic after we pick somebody.

Obviously, if you're sheriff, don't say you're sheriff yet.

But if we pick someone and the Sheriff complies, then the mafia knows who the sheriff's investigating and will be suspicious of anyone speaking with certainty towards that person after said vote.

[Kole T. Merr]

Whoa, there, buddy.

As a townsperson, I'm a little confused as to why I'm being accused. Is it simply because I'm a newcomer to the game?

[Piper Juunanagou]

I am not mafia.

That said, I don't know where I fall on whether or not we should risk trying to nab someone on the first day.

[John Doe]

But if we pick someone and the Sheriff complies, then the mafia knows who the sheriff's investigating and will be suspicious of anyone speaking with certainty towards that person after said vote.

Having been mafia twice, my move would be to target the one being investigated in order to minimize the information the townies receive. Of course, if that person was mafia, then he wouldn't be targeted at all. Or the mafia might fear the existence of a doctor and avoid the guy anyway. I'd rather we be more "take charge" this game, considering that last game the mafia almost won by making everyone run around confused and whatnot.

Edit: I think I'm just confusing myself. I'm mainly suggesting this as an alternative to lynching randomly on the first day.

[Shou]

No Lynch.

[Dr. Cringle]

Listen guys, I just took PILLZ for my leg infection so I may not be the lucid at the moment, but I think Waff is right.

I'm changing my vote. Lynch John Doe.

[Sigfried Hunin]

No Lynch

Fuck it, hope there's a Doctor. I'm the Sherrif again.

I'll give you guys a list of the order of people I will investigate soon. I'm in class right now.

[Kami]

Cool it with the no lynch votes you mafia sympathizers! We've still got time to try and do some digging today!

[Kaden]

I'm not mafia.

It always feels like we're not making any forward progress when the noose lies empty. I can appreciate not wanting to lynch an innocent townie, but eventually we're going to need to start making choices here.

You're correct, we're not taking any steps towards losing the game, but you can't look at it like that. Townspeople go into the game at a disadvantage and killing off your own dudes only worsens that.

While a no-lynch may not be taking a step towards winning the game, it's not taking a steps towards losing it. That's the part to focus on right now. Three days from now, yes, it will be crazy to no-lynch.

[Super Buu]

I won't be awake tonight to post the end of the day phase, but here's a reminder that at 3:15am GMT, 7 hours and 45 minutes from this post, all votes will be frozen in place. Any votes or unvotes past that point will not be valid.

If a mod could also lock the thread for me at that point, that would be sweet.

[Sigfried Hunin]

Order of investigations:
1 Dr Cringle
Whompt
Ashe
Kaden
Jarka
Sophia
Rem-13
Leo
Shou
Waff
Meer
Doe
Rafael
Piper
Celena
Kami
Teemer

[John Doe]

Any reason for that particular order?

[Dr. Cringle]

Yeah Sigfried, any reason I'm numero uno on your dirty mafia hit list?!

[Sigfried Hunin]

Eh, just sorta felt it out. No real reason, honestly.