Ye Olde Mafia - Day Two

[Anzekay]

Well, the interesting thing about day 1 lynches isn't that they are stupid, but that they can give some little bits of info.

Obviously on day 1 a mafia is not going to do a lynch vote for another mafia (or if they do, they'll unlynch vote later on if it looks like the mafia is going to get enough votes).

So that means that people who vote for a day 1 lynch are either:
1) Mafia, and the person they are voting for is NOT mafia
2) Townsperson and the person they are voting for could be anyone

The people who voted for the common lynch target yesterday (John Doe) are: Mal Nova, Kaden, Tyr, Ashe, King B, Sophia.

Kaden and Ashe both reversed their votes before the day was through.

So that means, if John Doe can prove he isn't mafia (unlikely, but this is where our cop could come into play), then there is a pretty high chance that one of the four who didn't unlynch might be mafia.

[Sophia]

I don't understand how you figure. Taking out 1 of 3 mafia > Losing a sole sheriff ? Was never great with numbers and stuff, but isn't that a statistical disadvantage?

@Mal Nova, you thinking too much into errthing yo. lol.

It depends on how useful you think depending on a sheriff is. If there was a way to know a person's role for sure, it'd be different. The irony is that the sheriff is the only one who can do that.

This can be a reply to Ashe as well, but of course I'm just speculating. That's all any of us can do with such limited information. The unspoken assumption on my part is that the vigilante isn't blindly sniping people, like Ashe alluded to. It's entirely possible that Doe is the doctor, again like Ashe said, but all I have to go off of is what's been said. So he's either the sheriff/vigilante, mafia trying to save his ass, or a townsperson. So with all of those scenarios:

If he really is the sheriff, then he gave up a mafia person for the vigilante to kill.

If he's mafia, then he called out Kaden at random. Lynching him kills a mafia person, and there's no guarantee that Kaden isn't mafia anyway.

If he's the vigilante, well...I actually agree with Ashe. xD He probably would have killed someone in the first night phase.

If he's a townperson, it sucks that we'd lose one, but not entirely crushing. It eliminates one more person and gives us better odds and information to work with.

And of course, if he's the doctor, then not saying so really hurt the cause.

No decision we make is a safe bet, but it's the safest. That's assuming, of course, that the sheriff didn't inspect him or hasn't spoken up yet.

[Anzekay]

I'll be honest here, the only people who are every completely OK with risking a townsperson with a role from a mostly random lynch are mafia.

That doesn't give your suggestion a lot of credibility, Sophia.

[Mal Nova]

Welll, there's something you ALSO have to think about. Kaden didn't die, I didn't die, and Doe didn't die. Question is Why? While I overestimate myself... and how much people listen to me... I'm active and the gut knows what the gut knows>_> Fluke? Luck? Trust the gut?

But I dont know about the 'vanilla' roles a whole lot. And I'll pull a Doe and assume that a Vigilante death and Mafia death will be described different?

[Mal Nova]

And people....STOP EDITTING

[Sophia]

I'll be honest here, the only people who are every completely OK with risking a townsperson with a role from a mostly random lynch are mafia.

That doesn't give your suggestion a lot of credibility, Sophia.

Just playing the percentages. Like I've said countless times, there is a very limited amount of info to go off of. However, Doe is the person we have the most information on. Any other lynch would be a complete shot in the dark.

[Ashe]

Wait, where to Doe point the finger at Kaden? If we're talking Day One, I chalk that up to mostly wild finger pointing but I'm willing to see the logic.

[Sophia]

I REALLY SUSPECT KADEN!

Lynch Kaden

HINT HINT WINK WINK NUDGE NUDGE

That's what I was referring to, and it's probably a reply to your initial post. Isn't he implying that he's the sheriff?

EDIT: And that was in this thread. I didn't have to point that out, but I wanted to annoy Mal a bit.

[Anzekay]

Just playing the percentages. Like I've said countless times, there is a very limited amount of info to go off of. However, Doe is the person we have the most information on. Any other lynch would be a complete shot in the dark.

Most other lynches would be, yes.

Perhaps a day 2 lynch on very limited info isn't the best idea.

[Ashe]

That's what I was referring to, and it's probably a reply to your initial post. Isn't he implying that he's the sheriff?

EDIT: And that was in this thread. I didn't have to point that out, but I wanted to annoy Mal a bit.

Oh, I totally missed that.

Hmm, its possible. Does sound like he's saying he's the Sheriff, but with Doe, I never know what to think.

[Sophia]

I also missed the possibility that he's a townsperson who is wildly accusing someone. That lowers the percentages a little bit.

EDIT: Damn it, Doe. xD If you could be less crazy, that'd be very helpful.

[Ashe]

Honestly, I'd like him to clarify it. I really think he's just bullshitting and pointing a wild finger, but I want to know if he has anything to back up his "HINT HINT". Sheriff?

[Mal Nova]

Again..Where is he?

[Anzekay]

Busy IRL and not able to get online quite yet?

[John Doe]

I'm saying nothing.

Ok, I will say one thing. I'm not the Vigilante. Mal wouldn't be in this game anymore if I was.

Also, I'm quiet this game because I'm writing all day err day. I have like 5 things due this week (one of which is a Chubbs post) and I'm up to my eyeballs in white pixels. This shit is crazy and I'm trying to get shit done. So yeah.

Can I lynch Kaden twice? I want to lynch Kaden twice.

[Mal Nova]

Thats not Doe

[John Doe]

Got a chance to read all the everything here.

Let me start off by saying HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA and end with LYNCH KADEN ALREADY JESUS!

[Mal Nova]

What is your reasoning?

[John Doe]

KICK LOGIC TO THE CURB! LYNCH HIM ALREADY BEFORE HE KILLS YOOOOOOOOOU~

[Mal Nova]

Didnt the ost use to do this to keep track?

Doe(3): Kaden, Nova, Sophia

Kaden(1): Doe