Waffia Day SEVEN

[Waffuru]

The town was near empty now, so many of their people murdered. There was no reason to stay, only for revenge. The early morning revealed one more death; Rafael, stabbed in the face with a meat clever. A clear message to Kaden.

Rafael was a normal townsperson, siblings with Kaden.

John Doe
Rafael
Ashe
Whompt
Kaden
Vad
Jon Meer
Orsalis
Kole T Merr
Leo
Rose
Kami
Jarka

[Waffuru]

day start go

[Blue]

I don't want to say it, but if Kraken and myself are who we say we are, and Shark, who protected me, is a townsperson, the person left to vote for is Meerkat.

Lynch Meer

[Kaden]

Well, Jarka came back innocent, so to me it's between Whompt and Meer. Fortunately, we know there's only one mafia left, otherwise they would have won today. Unfortunately if we don't get the lynch today, they win.

[Blue]

Well, that's assuming that I don't pick right tonight, but yeah. The best case scenario for us is that we lynch right today. The next scenario is that I protect correctly tonight and we have tomorrow to get it right. The worst scenario is that we both pick wrong today and the mafia gets a kill tonight.

Of course, we could not lynch today and hope the better odds tomorrow (1:3) work in our favor. Right now we have a 1:4 chance of guessing right, using no information. If we assume that Kaden is the Sheriff, and right about Jarka, it's a 1:2 chance of guessing right. If we then go on to assume that I'm telling the truth, then Meer has to be the last mafia member.

It's a whole lot of assumptions though.

[Kaden]

I'm completely confident in the Jarka investigation given that the Godfather is already dead.

[Jonathan Meer]

I am seriously not Mafia. I'm also seriously surprised that Kaden didn't investigate me, though I've no doubt I've got evidence planted on me like a boss.

I'm completely weirded out by Kaden this round (I've said that multiple times), but it seems there's zero chance he's Mafia, considering his sibling-connection with Rafael. Scratch him.

That leaves Whompt and Jarka. Now, I wouldn't put it past Jarka to be clever on the pardoning, but that would be a weird pairing for powers (pardoner AND Mafia?). I think we can scratch her off.

That leaves Whompt. Who turned up positive on a previous investigation. That might've been the result of planted evidence, but I don't recall any particular reason why Mafia would have suspected Whompt would have been the result of an investigation. Could have been a lucky guess on their part. Or, evidence could be permanent when placed (WAY OP if so), and Whompt could have been evidenced ages ago.

Regardless, lest we forget, Whompt was saved only by Jarka's pardon, and not through any specific defense he made. Let us hear Whompt's defense. Between him and me (who, really, are the only two candidates; Kaden and Jarka are almost definitely innocent), only one of us have come up positive on the investigation.

Hint: it wasn't me.

Insofar as I know my own innocence, and insofar as I'm pretty damn sure Kaden and Jarka are innocent, I KNOW Whompt is Mafia. Hopefully my arguments above are persuasive.

If not, then gg, mafia wins.

[Jonathan Meer]

Lynch Whompt

EDIT: And fro that matter, wtf four mafia?

EDIT2: I wasn't going to say anything (since any more attention drawn to myself is just too risky), but process-of-elimination and all that

I'm the Doctor. And I didn't protect you after your self-reveal, Kaden. If you're wondering why I've been suspicious of you, it's primarily because you weren't killed despite the lack of protection. That was my test. If the Mafia killed you and you were legitimately the Sheriff, then we were set back somewhat, but had already nailed two Mafia members, so were in fine shape. If the Mafia avoided you, then there was a basis for suspicion.

Of course, the test wasn't exactly sharp and clear. The Mafia may have avoided you because they thought you'd be protected. And now, I'm sure that's exactly what happened.

I've been protecting myself every single night. Primarily because I'm a selfish cocksucker, secondarily because I tend to be an early target (for both townies and maf), tertiarily because I wasn't at all sure who was mafia and who wasn't. It was an extremely strange dynamic, haven't a self-revealed Sheriff so early, who was calling shots and getting a lot of people behind him, AND was successfully offing (some) Mafia.

I didn't self-reveal because I didn't want to seem suspicious. Of course, now that it's just down to me or Whompt (and this is, no matter what, the final round), there's no point in hiding it. I'm the Doc, and I've been a selfish and largely unsuccessful Doc.

[Blue]

It seems that you could have revealed after my reveal and gotten rid of what seemed at the time to be the last mafia member, going off of previous games. At the very least, you would have dropped the mafia down a member.

Considering you said you were protecting yourself every night, the drawbacks of revealing yourself after I did so would have been moot. You could have even not said anything about who you were protecting. That way the mafia would have still been scrambling to pick someone not protected.

Now I know for a fact that you are mafia. The likelihood of two doctors in this game is nil. You chose to "reveal" now in order to move suspicion onto me and away from yourself, since if you can out me now then you win. The facts that I had evidence planted on me and Bumblebee's statement only strengthen your reason to pick me to frame. As you said, I only made it through that lynch due to the grace of Shark. I'm already an awfully suspicious person in this game. Why not use me to further your game?

If you are willing to suggest that the mafia can plant evidence, despite everyone besides myself being iffy on it, then you have to assume that they had done so to me.

I don't know about Shark and Kraken, but I know that you're the last member of the Mafia. They're perfectly able to make their own decisions though. They don't need me to tell them how to think or feel.

Edit: How would revealing make you seem suspicious if you were doing so to expose a false doctor? You're argument is faulty, my friend.

[Jarka]

Why the late reveal, Meer? Why not call bullshit on Whompt earlier?

Honestly, I was probably going to vote Whompt today, but you just made me extremely suspicious of you. Extremely. EXTREME.

[Waffuru]

Whompt 1/3 (Meer)
Meer 1/3 (Whompt)

[Jonathan Meer]

It seems that you could have revealed after my reveal and gotten rid of what seemed at the time to be the last mafia member, going off of previous games. At the very least, you would have dropped the mafia down a member.

Because, as you recall, you 'self-revealed' to protect yourself. Self-revealing just to guarantee your lynch (which was already set up to happen) would have made myself a sure-fire target. Which would have been useful for tanking the Mafia kill-attempts, but would have meant that I couldn't, with any degree of safety, use my power at any point thereafter except on myself. Staying on the down-low was in my best interests. As soon as you died and were revealed to be Mafia, THEN I probably would have self-revealed. Except that never happened, because Jarka saved you just before the final lynch-vote.

Now I know for a fact that you are mafia. The likelihood of two doctors in this game is nil. You chose to "reveal" now in order to move suspicion onto me and away from yourself, since if you can out me now then you win. The facts that I had evidence planted on me and Bumblebee's statement only strengthen your reason to pick me to frame. As you said, I only made it through that lynch due to the grace of Shark. I'm already an awfully suspicious person in this game. Why not use me to further your game?

...use you to further my game? I have no idea what that's supposed to mean.

My argument against you, even ignoring my self-reveal as the real Doctor, is pretty cast-iron as far as I'm concerned. I initially wasn't going to mention it, until I realized that keeping it quiet is actually more suspicious, and not less. And pointless, now that we're at the last week. CAN'T GET ME SUCKA

It's your word against mine. One of us is Doctor. And, again, I haven't been investigated and turned up guilty with a gun.

If you are willing to suggest that the mafia can plant evidence, despite everyone besides myself being iffy on it, then you have to assume that they had done so to me.

I don't know about Shark and Kraken, but I know that you're the last member of the Mafia. They're perfectly able to make their own decisions though. They don't need me to tell them how to think or feel.

Edit: How would revealing make you seem suspicious if you were doing so to expose a false doctor? You're argument is faulty, my friend.

Of course you 'know' that I'm the last member of Mafia; I've just made the clear, final argument against YOU. Your only possible defense is to try to discredit what I constructed, and turn the attention on me. It's not going to work.

I'm assuming the mafia can plant evidence to give you as much the benefit of the doubt as possible. Your investigation COULD very well have been the result of planted evidence; we shouldn't ignore that. As certain as I am you are Mafia, and as certain as I am that you must be lynched and lynched now for our victory, I'm not going to mince the plain facts and possibilities (primarily because I don't think they NEED to be lynched to show that you're clearly the final culprit).

The entirety of your argument can be summarized as 'Well, it's not me, so therefore...' Not particularly compelling.

[Blue]

With a bit of thinking, I just came to the conclusion that Meerkat HAS to be a liar. Observe:

EDIT: And fro that matter, wtf four mafia?

At the time when I revealed myself to be the Doctor, we had already lynched two mafia. If he is really surprised that there are four mafia, why wouldn't he have revealed when I did, got me lynched for being "false" and won the game for the Town? Exactly what did he have to lose if he really thought there were only 3 mafia?

The answer is that he KNEW there were more than 3 mafia. Because he was part of them. He didn't say anything at the time because if the Town were to believe me more than him, however unlikely, he would be lynched. If the Town had lynched me and it turned out I was actually the Doctor, then he would have been lynched the next day.

As you can see, if he were the Doctor it would have only benefited him have revealed the day I did. If he's Mafia, then it could only benefit him to wait until now to "reveal".

[Jarka]

Lynch Meer

[Jonathan Meer]

Why the late reveal, Meer? Why not call bullshit on Whompt earlier?

Honestly, I was probably going to vote Whompt today, but you just made me extremely suspicious of you. Extremely. EXTREME.

I gave my explanation above; if I wanted to be useful as Doc at any point in the game, I had to keep it quiet. Or, I had to resign myself to constantly protecting myself (which, honestly, I'm pretty cool with).

The initial scenario was, Whompt was pretty much guaranteed dead, and I had no idea a meddling (hint hint) role was out there that would nix his death. Had I known you would have pulled what you were going to pull, I MIGHT have self-revealed, as that probably would have put him over the edge. I would've been an insta-target (and, once they realized I was protecting myself, they probably would have gone after Kaden, and I'd have to start second-guessing them), and I wasn't comfortable with that.

As I had thought Whompt would die, then I saw no reason to self-reveal. He was a vote away from lynching. If he'd been lynched and shown to be Mafia, then the question as to whether or not there even was a Doctor was up in the air, and I remained anonymous.

As to why I took so long to mention it, I've been on autopilot the last few days. Not much sleep. The way I saw it, as long as Kaden was legit (which, again, I had serious reservations about, though they all seem to be misplaced now), I could afford to play conservatively; we were coasting to victory. Then we found out there were four mafia, and our lead quickly got whittled away.

After Whompt was essentially given a reprieve the day after you pardoned him, I pretty much had to stay silent. It was better for me to stay silent, able to save people, and knowledgeable that Whompt was full of shit (you'll recall that I've, ever since his 'self-reveal', been consistent in calling him out), than die to his counter-argument (which I wouldn't have the information to defend against that I now do). He would be lynched the very next day, but that would give the mafia two kills, one of which would be Kaden.

If there were only three mafia, huzzah, would have been useful, calloo callay. If four mafia, we'd be fucked. And I think we've all had the irksome feeling ever since the beginning that we may very well be dealing with four of them.

I can't allay the suspiciousness, other than to say that I'm telling the truth, that the truth in this case may look suspicious, and that I'm damned intelligent enough to spin shit so it doesn't look suspicious. I'm of the opinion that I don't have to do any of that spinning. I, again, am not the one that was found with a gun.

[Jonathan Meer]

This is exactly why I didn't want to self-reveal. The more I type, the more can be nitpicked and twisted away, and the more we can tip toward losing.

At the time when I revealed myself to be the Doctor, we had already lynched two mafia. If he is really surprised that there are four mafia, why wouldn't he have revealed when I did, got me lynched for being "false" and won the game for the Town? Exactly what did he have to lose if he really thought there were only 3 mafia?

Because, as I wrote in the post I was making while you were typing this up, if there were four mafia (and again, I had a sneaking suspicion that there were, though I'm still 'wtf' about it), we were fucked. Potentially without a Sheriff, definitely without a doctor, and with only one mafia member lost. Worse, absolutely no new information. None. No indication who that final mafia member was.

As you can see, if he were the Doctor it would have only benefited him have revealed the day I did. If he's Mafia, then it could only benefit him to wait until now to "reveal".

I think I've made my case quite clear on this point. It fundamentally was NOT in my interests to reveal myself, nor was it in the interests of the town.

EDIT: I just need to learn to keep my mouth shut. No matter how clear-cut the argument, no matter how logical the premises lead directly to the facking conclusion, rhetoric just gets you lynched.

I'm just amazed at Jarka. Fucking amazed.

[Blue]

Like you said, you're intelligent enough to spin shit so it doesn't look suspicious.

You say you didn't want to put a target on yourself, even though by protecting yourself every night you have relatively little worry there. You worried that after going after you, they would then target Kraken, giving you the additional worry about who they'd kill. But, if you were the Doctor, you would already have that worry. I know I worried about it every night phase. Every night phase since Kraken revealed, I've protected him because no matter how useful I am, the Sheriff is WAY more useful. I would think you'd have done the same, had you been the Doctor as you say.

If you had revealed when I did, and I had been lynched as Mafia, yes. It would have been tough deciding whether to protect yourself or Kraken. But part of the game is making tough decisions. And you would have brought the mafia down a member, given Kraken atleast one more shot to investigate someone, and given the town one less suspicious person to worry about. I mean, I've had people on the fence almost the entire game. That's worrying enough to me to want the person gone.

[Jonathan Meer]

Like you said, you're intelligent enough to spin shit so it doesn't look suspicious.

Which is to say, if I lie, you can be damned sure I'd come up with a better lie than that 'I am the Doktor and I protected myself every night lololol.'

You say you didn't want to put a target on yourself, even though by protecting yourself every night you have relatively little worry there. You worried that after going after you, they would then target Kraken, giving you the additional worry about who they'd kill. But, if you were the Doctor, you would already have that worry. I know I worried about it every night phase. Every night phase since Kraken revealed, I've protected him because no matter how useful I am, the Sheriff is WAY more useful. I would think you'd have done the same, had you been the Doctor as you say.

I gave my reasoning above for being very suspicious of Kaden. It's only when Raf did die and was confirmed as a sibling that I felt confident in his Sheriff-ness. Before that, it was too weird for my tastes. Still is damned weird.

I didn't want a target on myself as that would essentially nullify my power. Then I'd HAVE to protect myself thereafter. Or, try to second-guess the mafia and risk dying. Either way, I'd be of no use to Kaden, if he was the Sheriff. If I hadn't had so many suspicions about Kaden, I would have been protecting him all along, fuck my own potential death. But with my suspicion (I figured he could very well have been maf), there was no way I was wasting my heal on him; the only person I was pretty damn sure was legit was myself (well, and Jark, though her pardon thing seemed rather one-time-use).

If you had revealed when I did, and I had been lynched as Mafia, yes. It would have been tough deciding whether to protect yourself or Kraken. But part of the game is making tough decisions. And you would have brought the mafia down a member, given Kraken atleast one more shot to investigate someone, and given the town one less suspicious person to worry about. I mean, I've had people on the fence almost the entire game. That's worrying enough to me to want the person gone.

Again, I've already explained this; you're just trying to muddy up the waters.

You were pretty much guaranteed to die, until Jark saved you. A self-reveal would have been completely pointless.

If my self-reveal would cast suspicion on you (and after Jark's pardon and your apparent reprieve from suspicion the next day, I didn't see any reason to suppose it would work out for me), then I'm outed, and I still have no information on who's who (and am a target; I don't like being a target). Lest we forget, if you died and were revealed to be Mafia, the Mafia wouldn't have known that there was a Doctor at all, let alone that it was me. That lack of knowledge, too, shouldn't be underestimated (though, after my successful self-defense on night five, the first part of it went out the window).

As it stands, as far as I can see, we're in a perfect end-game. You're spun up into clear guilt; you've been investigated and you were shown to have a gun. EVEN ASSUMING there is an evidence-planter (and, again, for the sake of fairness, let's keep that on the table), it's very unlikely that you would have been targeted on that exact night. You gave no reason in the previous day to indicate you were a hot-ticket item for investigation.

Unfortunately, that perfect end-game is partially marred by Jarka's explanation-less vote.

[Jonathan Meer]

I don't want to feed you anymore. It's all settled; I've made my arguments, they are as strong as they ever get in Mafia.

I wait on Rad's vote. Worst case scenario, I'm lynched, and it's game over. Second case scenario, there's a tie, and we get one more day (with either Kaden or Jark getting shot). Third case scenario, Jark sobers up, and we win.

[Kaden]

Honestly this was what I expected.

Lynch Meer

I'll rationalize in the aftermath thread. Either way, this is probably gg.