Mafia III - Day Two

[Kami]

All we know for sure right now is that we're down one doctor and one mafia member, and someone has some ability to push in lynching through given some specific circumstance.

That leaves us with a lot of unanswered questions.

[Dr. Cringle]

Welp, definitely a well thought-out argument from Meer. I'd say I'm convinced.

Lynch Rem-13

I KNOW YOU'D HAVE LYNCHED ME LATER IN THE GAME! DON'T DENY IT!

[Kami]

I'm not mafia either.

Meer's argument could all be bullshit. It could even be mafia bullshit to throw us off track, and Rem might not be mafia either. Remember, Meer voted for Rem to build his so called "pressure" and get Rem to step out and defend himself in an effort to extort information from the crowd. Stop jumping on the Rem bandwagon and let's try to sort out a little more info.

Lynch Meer

[Kaden]

I'm not mafia.

I'm a bit surprised that they went after Waff rather than you, to be honest, given that they should have thought you the threat, but at the same time, the guy you investigated is the guy who caused their Godfather to be lynched.

Mafia have to assume there's a Doctor when choosing their target. Sigfried, whether he was telling the truth or not, was 100% going to be protected. Going after him would have been a waste of a night for the mafia.

Given the number of people, if I were mafia, I'd still be playing around some kind of "protector" role while they go about their business. That makes Sigfried a high-priority on both sides.

Looking at it that way, the odds are still in the mafia's favor even if they don't go after the sheriff. Assuming it was a power that killed John Doe, if it can be used again it probably will be... and it will probably kill an innocent. Getting the Godfather was the luckiest damned thing I've ever seen.

Assuming it was a role that killed Doe, and that's not just how the game works (which is still a serious assumption until Rose answers my question, if he does) then we have to assume they can lynch anyone who's gotten a vote and that they can do it as many times, over the course of the game, that they want.

I misspoke here. There's actually nothing to suggest that this assumed power needs the person to have a vote in their favor. We know that a) there was no majority and b) John Doe actually had votes towards him.

Assuming it is a power, it's a misplay to assume it suffers from limitation b. That's a great way to get someone accidentally killed.

I'd be very surprised if this mystery power could kill someone in addition to the majority vote, though there's only one way to test that. My current suspicion list is as follows:

1) REM. Already stated above why I think so. His claim of wanting to start shit is completely against his preferences from the previous game.
2) Meer. He's doing exactly what I would/did do as mafia. His logic is sound enough, but it's backed by a lack of information, which, given the current state of the game, makes what he's actually presenting sound more convincing than it actually is.
3) Teemer. He's copying me. Jerk.
4) Sigfried. As Ashe stated, he's provided no actual information at this point. It may seem like a risk to come out and say you're the sheriff, but if he's actually mafia, he's putting himself in a, potentially, very strong position. Until something actionable comes from his "power" he'll remain suspicious.
5) Piper. Don't actually have a reason. Just a gut thing.

Now, anyone who's paying attention will notice that number's one and two are contradictory to one another. I don't know what to make of that yet, either. REM asked what the odds are he and John would be mafia twice in a row, to which I respond: what are the odds of John being mafia three times in a row? That makes him neither innocent nor guilty, but random is as random does.

A couple things to note. Celena has been just as quiet the past two games as he is in this one and in only one of those games did he have a special role. Sophia just isn't around at the moment, it's not just limited to this game; I've been trying to get a hold of him for something else and had no luck.

We have to assume that the biggest factor in this game is some mystery power that allows someone to lynch freely if there's no vote. My suggestion --- and, sadly, this is just as much to the mafia's benefit as it is ours -- is for everyone to retract their votes and not have a single vote cast for anyone. Figuring out how this power works, if it is one, is absolutely essential.

One way or another, I'm quite certain I'll be dead soon, so hopefully, we can get this information-train rolling.

[Kami]

We have to assume that the biggest factor in this game is some mystery power that allows someone to lynch freely if there's no vote. My suggestion --- and, sadly, this is just as much to the mafia's benefit as it is ours -- is for everyone to retract their votes and not have a single vote cast for anyone. Figuring out how this power works, if it is one, is absolutely essential.

I'm willing to give this a try for today, or at the very least some thought.

Unvote

[Vad]

Lynch Rose

[Kami]

GTFO you're not in the game.

[Kole T. Merr]

As a townsperson (hey, it seemed like a good idea, Kaden), my gut is telling me that there's something fishy about Sig. From the moment he came out as a sheriff, I've felt that something isn't right.

However, I am all for letting another day of investigation into the magical murder power go on. Therefore, I refuse to vote, just like most Americans.

[Piper Juunanagou]

Well, I'm sure if Sig's being honest, he should probably wind up dead soon anyway.

[Kaden]

I'm not mafia.

Well, I'm sure if Sig's being honest, he should probably wind up dead soon anyway.

If the mafia are operating under the assumption that the townspeople have no other way of defending him (probably not a good assumption) then yeah, he'll be the target for sure.

If he's not mafia, of course.

[Rem-13]

Sure I'll unvote But good luck getting the lynchers to back off.

[Kami]

Maybe Ashe is trying to confuse everybody with all his fancy talk and long posts!

[Orsalis]

Well if I'm NOT dead then it'll make me look even MORE conspicuous so it'd prolly be one of their tactics to NOT lynch me and make it looks like I'm one of them or something.

[Sigfried Hunin]

Well if I'm NOT dead then it'll make me look even MORE conspicuous so it'd prolly be one of their tactics to NOT lynch me and make it looks like I'm one of them or something.

FUCK

[Rafael]

We now have proof Sig leads a double life, get him!

[Ashe]

Kaden: Yeah, I'd say I agree with all the points in your post. (Didn't want to quote which one since its fairly long) I think those people are fairly suspicious (some of them anyway XD, I laughed at your Teemer listing).

Vad: Laughed hard, grats.

Its obvious. Rose is the target.

[Rem-13]

Now that I think of it we have more to gain by an incomplete lynch vote not lynching anyone than no votes, AND its more likely. If no one gets a majority lynch on me and I get strung up then whoops, but if I don't then we can see what had changed between now and before. In fact,

Vote Ashe

John Doe, Ashe, Kaden, and Meer mafia. Prove me wrong.

[Kaden]

I'm not mafia.

Like I said, I expect to be dead soon. Hopefully when I die, people will look back at this thread and get an idea of how to actually work together to gain information about ridiculously powerful abilities and gauging their limitations.

[Tyr]

I'm not mafi-- fuck, shut up Kaden. I'm a townspeople and I posted last thread if only to not get eliminated! Shit got busy around here but I got an extension on a paper (thank god). I think there's no special role, as Rose said voting for not lynch is the same as not voting. I basically think majority rules.

[Kole T. Merr]

I'm not mafi-- fuck, shut up Kaden. I'm a townspeople and I posted last thread if only to not get eliminated! Shit got busy around here but I got an extension on a paper (thank god). I think there's no special role, as Rose said voting for not lynch is the same as not voting. I basically think majority rules.

As a townsperson, I believe that there HAS to be some sort of special role, if we are assuming that more than half of the people must vote to lynch someone, which has been the case in the past games. Doe only had 3 votes, and that's nowhere near over half. Rose has yet to clarify if the basic mechanic of majority votes is still intact or if it's just whoever has the most votes. Until we hear otherwise, we must assume that the core gameplay is the same, and therefore can only conclude that since we didn't vote to lynch someone, and the mafia killed 1 of the two people last night, then some sort of special role had to have killed the other.

TL;DR: 2 deaths, we didn't lynch anyone, someone's gotta be special.